Predictive Analytics

Knowing the future can make all the difference in the world, even if in reality or probability, you only have a 50 percent chance of being correct.

This is the realm of predictive analytics, being able to determine the best path forward based upon careful analysis of data. These days, predictive analytical models are making a huge impact across a wide range of industries, for companies large and small.

If you are truly concerned about looking into the future and have more faith in the corporate spindoctors than the fortune tellers of old, then you need to be following the lauded experts in this field.

You need to talk to Jim Kobielus of Forrester, Eric Siegel of Prediction Impact, Rob Walker of Chordiant and many other predictive analytics expert.

Examine the following and ask probing questions; best practices for designing predictive models; Proven use cases for predictive analytics; Pitfalls to avoid in implementing a program; How to balance different predictive models; Examples of adaptive models that work and have been proven to do so. Taste the pudding.

Adaptive Change Management - Part 2 The Science

The Science of Change, is a completely different entity. It provides the structure to support change management activities.

It helps bring order to the often complex process of managing the human elements of a project by defining the tasks, roles, milestones and timelines required to achieve project objectives.

Without Science, our insights into human motivation remain only insights without the corresponding actions needed to create desired behavioural change.

The Science of Change is more than a well-designed deliverable. It is the process that can translate the language of human behaviour into the language of project management. You will understand how necessary this is because it helps Project managers better understand the relationship between technical activities and the actions required to achieve the behavioural change required.

The elements that need to be applied include:

• Project Management 101 - Although the change team can create a high-level plan upfront, they also need to expand the detail once the project has started. They also need to fully link their activities with those of other work streams. This will build their credibility and they are more likely to be seen as collaborative, and avoid the change team being seen as separate from the project, the PMO and technical teams.
• Follow the Leader - The change team need to identify one clear leader, and avoid operating in a loose formation. Busy project managers, who are focused on driving to timelines and budgets, will better understand the chain of command and will easily direct the communications and accountability, in that direction. Increasing the visibility of the change leader improves the perception of accountability and establishes a clear point of communication, which project leaders need and demand.
• Boundaries - Once you have established clear divisions and boundaries capture them in a detailed project plan. That way the team will better understand what skills and capability is needed to complete the work. This strengthens the quality focus and the targetted results because team members are assigned work consistent with their skills.
• Define Tasks - Provide a clear project structure with well defined tasks and task responsibilities. This will help everyone focus on their specific objectives and prevent the change team holding a crisis meeting every day, to address the latest hot issue of the day.
• Proven Tools - Use the well trodden path and well proven tools, wherever possible and include them in the detailed project plan. It introduces more constants and helps the team see where they can bring consistency into the use of tools. This also brings with it an improvement in the quality of reports, assessments, and templates that work stream leaders use. It is teh responsibility of the change team to make project teams aware of the existance of such tools and that they are used appropriately.
• Regular Team Meetings - The Science of Change will also help manage the regular team meetings effectively and make them more focused and directed. The change team needs to create a more consistent meeting schedule and again make sure the appropriate structure is adhered to.

When the 'Art of change' is applied without the 'Science of Change', the change team will be visibly less successful and less able to help the project resources adapt to the new organisational realities.

When you apply the surgical tools of the Science, the PMO team will not only understand the actions required for intervention, but also the deliverables and accountability to help them generate better results.

Integration is essential.
The 'Science' needs the 'Art' because the 'Art' identifies any underlying issues and the drivers of behavioural change. It identifies pathways and conduits for adaptive solutions to flow through and this is required to overcome any and all project challenges.

Likewise, the 'Art' needs the 'Science' because the 'Science' converts the 'Art’s information and ideas into an understanable and realisable structured action with clearly defined outcomes.

The 'Art' identifies what needs to happen and the 'Science' makes it happen. By recognising and understanding the existance and the connections between the two, change leaders will be far better able to bring about the adaptive capability, required to manage change, more effectively.

Adaptive Change Management - Part 1 The Art

Talk to any project manager and they will underscore the importance of change management support from their colleagues in HR.

Also, most PMs believe that, even when solid capability is brought to the table, they still struggle to include change methodology into initiatives, let alone leverage its value for improved project success.

The difficulty of incorporating change management lies less in the construct of the particular change methodology, and more in the challenge of integrating the rational structure of project management with the irrational and unpredictable process of managing human behavioural change.

Successful change managers have learned that they must enhance the adaptive capability of their project teams by applying both the Art and Science of Change, to create more project successes.

The change 'team' must lay down the strong foundation early in the project;

• assign resources,
• identify their methodology,
• conduct stakeholder readiness and awareness assessments,
• establish a high-level project plan
• Create a project 'theme', develop key messages,
• conduct numerous and varied 'communication' and 'awareness' presentations
• Establish an executive sponsor council and a customer board, keeping the business case uppermost in your head and on the agenda
• Create consensus about the solution with senior executives and HR leaders worldwide.

Closely review and audit progress every 6 weeks and recognise that corrective actions are likely every three months after the project starts. Look for the wobbly wheels before they fall off.

There will be disagreements within the work streams between company and vendor resources. HR leaders and senior executives will suddenly baulk at proposed changes to processes, especially if it concerns performance management and reporting formats.

The change team will find itself marginalised and on the edge of the project. The project managers will be increasingly elusive and evasive, missing or re-scheduling change update meetings.

No matter how well structured, conceived and planned, once a project begins there will be obstacles and challenges that require 'change'; redesigning the plan or creating work-around solutions to help meet broader project objectives.

Some problems are technical problems that can be solved by applying expertise. Others, require solutions that are more adaptive and focused on navigating human emotions and behaviour.

Most problems are a combination of both and require adaptive capability that allows change leaders to navigate the ambiguity and create flexible solutions to keep initiatives on track.

The change team can struggle in the first phase of the project if they place too much emphasis on the Art of Change — assessing, interpreting and understanding the emotional and behavioural factors that influence people during the course of an initiative.

This will be made more difficult. if they remain removed from what's really happening and continue to articulate the project vision and key objectives.

They need to listen actively, ask tough questions, and create good, honest communications that helps to clarify and define the real problem. They also need to be concerned about maintaining and building good relationships which will help work stream and project leaders stay 'collaborative' over the long haul.

Examining the Art of Change will produce valuable information that will help projects adapt and evolve, successfully. Any behavioural obstacles identified can be difficult for highly structured and logical project managers and technical resources to understand and address. That's why you may need assistance with this.

The flow of information can seem to work against the flow of the project process; the deadlines and budgets established for the initiative. There is a big risk that the Project managers will be left puzzled and wondering how to create actions that fit within the structure of the overall project plan, and as a result, they will see the change team as an obstacle and reject their meaningful 'collaboration.'