Should you be picking the low growing fruit

NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO TURN?

SHOULD YOU TAKE A LOWER PAID JOB?

When searching for a new job and the time starts to drag on and on, normally extending beyond three months, it is natural to begin to wonder if you should take a lower-level or lower paid job just to get some sort of paycheck again.

It's a sensible and an honest question but also a difficult one to answer. After working so hard to build a career and climb the corporate ladder, taking a step or two back, can affect more than your pride.

Some career experts will warn you against taking a lower-level job. They will advise you to hold out for a better offer that will better advance your career and not set you back a step, or three. Clearly, this is not an issue when you need a money to keep a roof over their head and food on the table. It doesn't matter what job you get, just as long as it's honest and helps pay the bills.

There is a strong argument that taking a lower-level job can be a smart career move, especially if it prevents you from being unemployed for more than 12 months, and with the economy as slow as it is, 12 months of unemployment is not unrealistic.

Its a simple but realistic outlook. You may want to consider positions at a level lower. You will increase your chances of getting a job sooner if you keep your options open and consider lower-level positions in addition to relocating and switching industries. This advice goes for executives too. There is an expression that says; 'A' class talent always rises to the top. Clearly, holding out for the perfect or even a comparable job opportunity in this economy may be even more risky than taking a step or two back.

Its OK to hold out for a perfect or promoted post for three to nine months. Even up to a year can be acceptable and justifiable, but if you're out of a job for 12 to 18 months, you're in danger of devaluing your skills and marketability. Today's business moves so fast and there are so many changes and new regulations, new laws and new competitors arriving on a 7-by-24 basis that being out of the market and out of touch for 12 or more months, is a big gap to jump.

The dilemma is; If you spent some of the time you were unemployed doing contract or short term consulting work would this mean that you were still in touch with the business world? Taking on short term and consulting projects definitely will help, for a number of reasons but it's important to take on projects that will help you gain the knowledge and experience that will help you get a promoted post. Also, employers tend to consider these projects as part of a job seeker's portfolio, if they are made aware of them by you.

The down side could be; If you, as an experienced executive, picked up a consulting contract managing a company's payroll, a prospective employer may not consider this as suitable experience, a diversion away from, and dilution of your normal key skill sets. Thus, they may look disfavourably upon your application as an IT executive. They may not think it was at a high enough level and would have preferred to see you working on a more strategic project.

In conclusion; Diversify by all means but be mindful of what contracts and consulting projects you take on. It may seem to contradict my earlier recommendation to seriously consider lower-level jobs, especially if money is tight but consider the circumstances well and do not forget the overall perception that may be given out by some positions, with respect to new employers. They may not see it as a positive move for your career.

Probability - Birthday pairs

With my love of subjects around Probability and Risk, I find myself reading Simon Singh's book; Fermat's Last Theorem. I am a big fan of Simon and would certainly recommend his Book of Code to any intellectual IT persona. Coincidentally, I also bought the Book of Cod and the Book of God, both by completely different authors. Although both of these were entirely 'off subject', they threw an interesting light on the fishermen's pursuit of the Cod and mankind's pursuit of spiritual belief.

Let me provide you with an interesting story about counterintuitive Probability that I was reminded of, after reading Simon Singh's book. What is the probability of 2 people, at a party or sports gathering, sharing the same birthday. With 23 people on a football pitch or 23 people at a party you would imagine that the probability of 2 people in that group sharing the same birthday would be unlikely, given that there are 365 days to choose from. Most people would guess that there is less than 10% probability.

I will not keep you in suspense unnecessarily. The answer is just over 50%. Surprised? Well it is true. The likelihood of 2 people in a group of 23 sharing the same birthday is more than 50%. It is a counterintuitive dilemma with a counterintuitive answer.

The issue we have as humans, is that we tend to consider the problem as more complex than it is. We think that there are 23 people and 365 days in the year, so the answer must be some multiplicity of that but it is not.

The better approach is to consider the issue from a different angle entirley. The question is about pairs. How many pairs are there in such a group? To save you counting let me tell you, there are 253. The first person can be paired with 22 others, the second person can only be paired with 21 others because we have already paired up the first person. Thus, reducing the pool by 1. The third person can then be paired with 20 others and so on until we reach 253.

The odds of pairing increases dramatically when the number of people at the party increase. You will by now realise that the number of pairings with increase accordingly. The knowledge of these counterintutive issues is well known to mathematicians and your local bookmakers (bookies), one from a problematic view and the other from the view of economic gain.

So, the next time you are at a slow party, you may take the opportunity to gain kudos with the other partygoers or perhaps make some chump change. Good luck!