Japan PM asks China's defence chief for 'transparency' in government

Tokyo (AFP) Nov 27, 2009 - Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama called on China's defence chief Friday to enhance the "transparency" of the communist giant's military build-up, the foreign ministry said.

Hatoyama made the request in a meeting with Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie, who held talks with his Japanese counterpart earlier Friday and agreed to promote mutual visits and hold joint maritime rescue drills. Liang arrived here on Thursday as the first Chinese defence minister to visit Japan since Hatoyama took office in September.

The premier told Liang that China's defence budget has increased "by two digits every year" and that he wanted Beijing to "enhance its transparency more than ever," the ministry said in a press release.

The Chinese defence minister replied China had been "making effort to enhance the transparency," the statement said. "China is pursuing national defence policy that is defensive in nature and that will not become a threat to any country," Liang was quoted as telling Hatoyama.

A Chinese budget report in March said that military spending was to rise 15.3 percent in 2009 to 472.9 billion yuan (69 billion dollars). For the last two years, China has announced military budget increases of over 17 percent.

In the ministerial talks, Liang and Japanese Defence Minister Toshimi Kitazawa "agreed to make their positive contribution to peace, stability and prosperity in the region and the world," according to a joint press statement.

"They agreed to promote their comprehensive, strategic relationship of reciprocity between the two countries through continued and stable exchanges in defence matters," the statement said.

During the meeting, the two ministers in particular agreed to continue reciprocal visits with Kitazawa now scheduled to travel to China in 2010, the statement said. They also agreed to carry out joint drills for rescue operations against maritime accidents or disasters, with Japanese warships scheduled to make a port call in China next year.

"For us, the relationship with China is unquestionably one of the most important bilateral relations," Kitazawa told a news conference. Liang said: "China and Japan are important neighbours. We agreed to secure safety and stability in the region by strengthening our defence exchanges."

At the news conference, Liang, who visited Pyongyang on his way to Japan, made no remarks on North Korea, where he met its reclusive leader Kim Jong Il. Liang was the latest top Chinese official to visit the isolated nation since Prime Minister Wen Jiabao went there early last month as the two nations celebrate the 60th anniversary of bilateral ties.

The Ups, Downs and Wonders of Living in a Parallel Universe

In recent months economists, and even economics as a discipline, have received an unprecedented amount of negative publicity. They have been attacked by governments, bankers, unions, industrial corporations, and the press.

They have even been attacked by their own peers from the world of academia, possibly to divert attention from them. Economists have been accused of ineptitude for not predicting the current crisis and its magnitude.

Forecasting
Some have, of course, suggested that the dismal science was never intended to help predict where the economy was going to go in the future and that in fact it was established to help manage economies in a more efficient manner but, of course, those who have spent anything more than a few seconds with anyone considering themselves to be an economist would have experienced that the first thing they would do to prove their knowledge would be to make a prediction about some economic variable.

Predictions
The problem is that given the magnitude of information necessary to make any kind of prediction about anything that needs aggregate economic data it is literally impossible to make guess-timates that are even remotely accurate.

The recent bad economic news in the U.K. and the U.S. was a perfect example of that. Not only had the economists missed the first stages of the crisis they also misread or misinterpreted how the economy was recovering but, of course, it never stopped any of them from predicting that we have turned the corner as soon as we had all got used to the fact that the economy is in a bad state.

The Property Market
The same seems to be happening in the property market. Economists at major U.K. building societies have started suggesting the many people were sitting on mountains of cash waiting for a sign that the economy has turned a corner before starting their buying spree. Hence, they suggest cautiously that there is a chance that house prices in the U.K. could end 2009 in the positive territory.

Waiting for a Sign
The problem is that even if it was true that these investors were simply waiting for a sign of economic recovery before they started buying why have they started buying now? After all, the latest signs are that the economy is doing much worse than expected. Consequently, if anything, they should have delayed their purchases even further.

Mass Re-possessions
It seems that since building societies need house prices to rise in order to avert the risk of mass repossessions their economists somehow arrive at more than positive data. If prices do rise they can also reduce the amount of capital they need to keep against bad debts and hopefully increase the amount of mortgages they issue.

Unfortunately, the reality is that most people find it very hard to get mortgages, especially since few can afford the 20% or 25% deposits that most lenders demand. Add to that the ever increasing numbers of unemployed and you can get an idea of just how far from reality these predictions are.

A Parallel Universe
Based on the recent experience with economists, and those working for building societies in specific, it seems that they somehow live in a parallel universe to the rest of the world. Looking at useless data seems to give either a false sense of doom or growth.

It somehow seems as if they never actually have human contact with those who buy homes or spend money shopping. It is a wonderful cocoon to live in, completely oblivious to the rest of the world or they are trying to maintain the charade.

Published Reports
The only problem is that their outlandish predictions are actually published by leading news agencies. If the press stopped giving such predictions the amount of attention that they are, I am sure that they would also not feel compelled to publish data that while newsworthy are in no way related to what is happening in the real economy.

Perhaps it is time that the press also learn to ignore such predictions, like the rest of us have done for years.

NYPD Spend $1M on New Typewriters! Change what change?

They say you can't stop or turn back Time but the NYPD have found another option for not progressing, avoid change and live in the Past!

Why is IT Change so Difficult for Political and Government bodies alike? It is bad enough that Typewriters are still in use by the NYPD but now the city of New York has signed a new three-year, $1 million deal for MORE typewriters, the majority of which will be used by the NYPD.

While the department has endured a major, multiyear technology overhaul, with some big success, it demonstrates that IT change is often well intended, meticulously planned but not always carried out or implemented in its entirety.

New York Post
Technological change is never easy, or quick, or perfect, especially for big bureaucracies. Unfortunately, the NYPD made news this week when the New York Post reported that the City of New York had signed up a $1 million contract with a typewriter vendor to purchase thousands of new manual and electric typewriters, during the next three years.

Improvements made
The NYPD's typewriter requirements, accounted for the bulk of the contract. The article describes how NYPD Deputy Commissioner and CIO Jim Onalfo, who took over the reins in May 2003, had invigourated the NYPD's IT department and brought them into the 21st century.

The article also reported that changes to the insular and bureaucratic culture and legacy loaded IT environment, had been vast. Massive improvements were made in areas of disaster recovery, wireless communications, networking infrastructure, and many others.

Three Years In
Even three years into Onalfo's serious IT overhaul in 2006, glaring disconnects were still present: "Each of the 76 precincts is now connected by a videoconferencing system that ties into a command center at One Police Plaza," the article stated. "Within some of the precincts, however, there are still detectives using typewriters to fill out paper reports and filing carbon copies."

Essential Typewriters
NYPD cops "still use typewriters to fill out property and evidence vouchers, which are printed on carbon-paper forms. There are typewriters in every police precinct, including one in every detective squad." This is not felt to be part of a strategic disaster recovery solution but the NYPD stated; "We are working on software to eliminate the old machines," a police representative stated.

Huge Strides with RTCC
It should be noted that NYPD IT and CIO Onalfo have made huge strides in overhauling how the NYPD uses new technologies. The NYPD relies heavily on the Real-Time Crime Center (RTCC), a high-tech "war room" where detectives are able to tap into dozens of police, government and other related databases. As an example of the RTCC's power, real-time information from police officers at the scenes of crime can be meshed with the sophisticated database queries made at the RTCC to help to track down criminals.

Crime Stoppers Hotline
In addition, emergency 911 capabilities allow citizens to directly transmit photos and videos to the police at the RTCC. New Yorkers can also send text messages and multi-language e-mails to its Crime Stoppers hotline program.

Typewriters Everywhere
In truth, there are probably a lot of businesses and government agencies that have stashes of typewriters in their offices, just like the NYPD does. But until everything is digitized, there will be a seemingly mind-boggling need for typewriters.

The NYPD's typewriters are both a lasting vestige of the way things were and how they uses to be done in the past but it is a shocking reminder of just how much more change and education needs to be done.

Tilting at Silos! Aim High!

Business Silos - Normally thought of as perpendicular columns formed from one particular business function, product group or demographic type and as such, they can easily become entrenched, insular and highly defensive.

They are currently discouraged but do have a tendency to self-repair and re-form.

Pack Mentality
If your silos are aggressively defended they can be described as having an almost predatorial 'pack' mentality. You will need to match that aggression in your efforts to depose and you will need to confront and overome the Alpha 'head'.

Herd Mentality
If they are more defensive and introspective then they will be more 'herd' like and easier to break up and disperse into smaller less threatening numbers.

Leadership
Remember, both groups will have a cascading structure of leadership with normally one Alpha type at the head.

Taking the Power
In the parlance of ancient mythology, you need to remove the head of the Medusa or the many heads of the more resilient, Hydra, to remove th epower of the beast. Remember at this point you will have a rather large smelly body on your hands that is dead-weight and blocking your path. So, be sure you have considered the impact of your deeds and have strategic plans for disposal or re-structuring.

Supporting Structure
Consider the supporting structure. Some silos are better constructed than others. The 'assisting' heads will defend the 'head', by rhetoric if not by deads, because it feeds and protects them but there will be many among them that will replace the head with theirs, if it topples. Consider what incentives would encourage this behaviour.

This is the way of all things, business.

Cross-agency Silos
Although cross-agency silos do exist in large organisations, silos and silo-like mentality are not conducive to flexibility or cross enterprise co-operation and communications. They also inhibit change and diversity whilst at the same time as retaining bad practices and transparency. Both are an anathema in today's business worlds. Clearly there will be exceptions to this but many a good manager or CIO has fallen foul of tilting at these 'windmills'.

Government Silos
Both National and Local Government are excellent places to find entrenched silos, as are politically formed international organisations e.g. the UN, NATO, etc. These dinosaurs move slowly and carefully, arguably this is so they will not topple too many silos along the way but it does severely limit their capability and effectiveness.

Persistance
There is much written about the persistance of silos, there ability to disband, form and re-form when broken up. The nature of silos is the nature of humanity and their ability to form cohesive bonds, support each other and form long chains of personal networks and how many of us have not been part of this and dependent on it, at some time in their career. The ease of communications that we enjoy today is beneficial and insistant in keeping this alive.

Open Government
We would all love to see more openess in government, with more information being made accessible to the public and the current upheaval in the UK about Political Expense account violations, is clear evidence of why we should continue to pursue transparency in government and civil services.


Silos stand still
Silos do exist and will persist, like poverty and criminality they should be openly opposed and discouraged in all their forms, except of course when they offer us a beneficial step up the fickle ladder of our business careers, allegedly.

H1N1: The Hidden or Concealed Pandemic

H1N1 swine flu continues to roam the planet. In the US, cases are thought to be in the hundreds of thousands. In Japan, hundreds of teenagers have caught it, despite no obvious connections with Mexico or the US.

Yet in Europe, health authorities are not testing widely for it and are prescribing drugs as though they could still contain it. And in Geneva, health ministers have fought this week to keep the World Health Organization from following its own rules and calling this a pandemic.

There has been a phenomenal mismatch between quite sensible rules about how to declare a flu pandemic, and equally sensible rules about how to respond. The mismatch was wholly predictable, yet somehow no one saw this coming.

The WHO rules for declaring different degrees of flu pandemic threat are based on epidemiology (how the virus is spreading) for good reasons. This is because any new flu virus to which most of the world has little immunity, and which spreads well enough person-to-person to escape its continent of origin, is very likely to go global, and to cause more sickness and death than flu usually does. That is the definition of a flu pandemic.

The virus's ability to spread is what matters. H5N1 bird flu has travelled across Eurasia, mainly in birds, but it hasn't spread readily in people, so it isn't a pandemic.

The Mexican swine flu H1N1, however, has. When it spread across the Americas, the WHO followed its rules and declared it a level 5 situation; one down from a pandemic. When it starts spreading outside the Americas, through "community transmission" - meaning it crops up generally, not just in people who have visited Mexico or New York recently or their contacts - that means it's got a foothold globally.

A flu that can do that is very unlikely to stop there. The WHO rules make that a full-blown level 6 pandemic.

And frankly, that is starting to happen. As I write, the number of confirmed cases in Japan (and that's just people sick enough to see a doctor and get tested) has jumped by 35 in the past 24 hours, to nearly 300, mostly due to that perennial vector of flu, the gregarious teenager. The main cluster started without any known links to the Americas.

In Europe, countries are deliberately not testing cases that could be community acquired, almost as if someone doesn't want to trigger - 'LEVEL 6'

In fact, Britain, Japan and other countries spent this past week pleading with the WHO not to go to level 6 yet, at least while the virus is still causing mostly mild disease. WHO boss Margaret Chan has now agreed to make the call when she sees "more signals coming from the virus itself or the spread of the disease, including severity."

The problem is, countries have pandemic plans that, rightly, prepare for the worst. Until recently we were worried about H5N1 (we still are) and there seemed a good chance that if it went pandemic, it might start off severe, necessitating major controls from the start.