Calculating the odds of being paid off - First step

"Will I still have a job tomorrow? and in the tomorrows after that"

With the world economy claiming to be in a far-reaching recession and companies announcing layoffs seemingly every day, the question of continuing employment looms large in every thinking person's mind.

Clearly, some employees feel that they are at greater risk of losing their jobs than others. What's not so clear is how to calculate that risk. So how do you become your own Risk Manager and carry out a risk assessment on yourself. Consider how you can devise a good method that would help, not only yourself but also other IT professionals, get a relatively objective handle on the odds of getting laid off.

You may be wondering why anyone would want to determine the likelihood of their losing a job. You may also believe that a 'layoff' risk assessment method could be a very helpful tool. Depending on your circumstances, outlook and character, many people worry unnecessarily about getting laid off and others who do get laid off, are often taken completely by surprise.

A risk assessment for layoffs could help IT professionals determine whether they are in the red zone (high) or the green zone (low) risk category, when job losses come around. Low-risk professionals will then be able to rest easy and carry on with their work and the high-risk employees can be proactively defend and entrench their positions, whilst actively preparing themselves emotionally, professionally and financially, for the moment when their jobs get cut.

As a first step, let us propose a list of possible variables that could indicate someone is likely to get laid off. Let us also propose another list of variables that could indicate someone is unlikely to get laid off.

Our goal is to develop an accurate and plausible assessment, one that will really help people get a grip on their futures. Coming up with such an assessment, can be difficult, for a whole variety of reasons. One of these reasons would be an incomplete or inappropriate list of variables.

If you examine the lists below and identify which of the variables are appropriate to your circumstances and discard those that are not. You can also weigh a certain number of the retained variables more heavily than others, because of their importance or criticality.

Examine also how the assessment is structured. Structuring it as a questionnaire would allow people to assign points for each negative variable (e.g. each strike against them) and subtract points for each positive variable. The conclusion would be easily calculated and greatly simplified. People with high scores are more likely to be laid off than people will lower scores.

Remember that the goal of this assessment is to help and support people, not to frighten them.

Variables that Could Indicate Someone Is Likely to Get Laid Off

1. Your employer is not meeting its financial plan. (he's broke!)
2. Your salary is at the high-end of the pay scale for your profession or function. (so much for ambition!)
3. A position or function you help support has been eliminated or restructured. (the horse died!)
4. You work on a project that has been cut or that you sense is going to be cut. (Zepellin restoration)
5. You gossip or complain a lot. (no wonder. Look at the previous options on this list)
6. The work you do is mundane or repetitive in nature (e.g. re-setting passwords or setting up routers) and could be outsourced to a third party. (or monkey with learning difficulties)
7. Your work is not customer-focused. (but I work in Security)
8. The function you work in is well/over-staffed (full of "fat" cats that need a trim)
9. You don't "fit in" with the 'culture' of your department. (You are sober)
10. Your company could find someone to replace you at a lower cost with relative ease (e.g. going to the bus stop line, rather than hiring a head hunter)

Variables That Could Indicate Someone Is Unlikely to Get Laid Off

1. You've demonstrated your ability to adapt to new strategies. (Flexible as Yoga)
2. You have good relationships with different people throughout your company. (married to the boss?)
3. Your position is cross-matrixed to different leaders. (you are a bigomist)
4. You have a good rapport with your boss, and your boss is regarded highly by senior management. (you still own the negatives from the office party)
5. You work on multiple projects that are critical to dealing with existing business conditions. (your wife sleeps around)
6. Your skills are up to date, in demand and align with the IT organization's current and future needs. (you have killed all the competition in the office)
7. Your company would have difficulty finding someone to fill your shoes. (you are overweight)

Candidate references

Who should I choose as my referees?

Almost 60% of employers claim that they have had to withdraw an offer of employment after receiving poor references about successful applicants.

So, you have managed to wow your future employer at interview stage. Cometh the hour, cometh the man and you have convinced them that you are that man i.e. the best person for the job. The last hurdle to hop over is supplying some references. This does not mean that you can get away with being sloppy and provide poorly prepared references.

References are significant and act as a third party endorsement. They are used by hiring managers as reassurance that you are who you say you are and will do for them what you claim you have done for your previous employers.

Therefore, given the high number of rejections at the reference phase, it is important to prepare your references properly. Here are some useful pointers.

Don't include any details
Don't give the names and contact details of your referees on your CV. You should simply state that ‘References are available on request'. Employers will ask you for details if and when they are ready to offer you a position. After all, you wouldn't want your current employer being asked if they would re-hire you when you haven't even told them you're leaving!

Protect your referees
Amazingly, I have had 'unprofessional' recruitment companies approaching my references without permission, to request information on not only myself but also using the approach as a prospective sales call. They started asking if the executive could provide information about other employees in the organisation who may be interested in using the services of a recruitment agency. Not to be content with this, they went on to ask if the organisation would be interested in engaging the recruitment company for its own recruitment, as an aide de HR?

Needless to say they did not get a very positive response and I was extremely embarassed when I heard what had happened. My referee was very magnanimous about the whole incident but as a very busy senior executive in an international organisation, he should have been treated with more respect. Not to mention violating my trust!

What kind of information will my referees be asked to provide?

Nowadays, hiring managers can only request;

• Length of employment
• Previous job title
• Brief details of responsibility
• Overall performance
• Time-keeping and attendance
• Reason for leaving

Employers can also ask your previous company if they would re-hire you, should you apply for a position there in the future.

Choose your referees carefully
85% of employers will check at least one of your references when offering you a position. Typically this will be your most recent employer. So it is important that you choose the most appropriate and responsive people to support your application.

Its all relatively simple

Personal references are not advisable because they are more likely to be complimentary and positive, so it is best to avoid them. Having Grandma Doris saying what ‘a lovely lad' you are isn't going to hold much weight, unless she has a connection to royalty or is married to the CEO.

Remember that it is not written in stone that you have to use a former employer as a reference. Business acquaintances, customers and organisation leaders can all make good references, too. If you don't have much in terms of work experience, you're advised to use one of your tutors.

What are they saying about you?
Under the Data Protection Act, you have the right to see what comments your old employer has made about you as part of their reference in much the same way that you can access your medical records.

If there are comments included that you don't agree with it may be too late with this particular job offer, but you may wish to find out, diplomatically why these comments were made. Simply to make sure that this particular reference doesn't harm your next application.

Believe me, it is a mistake to suggest that your Parole Officer will provide a good reference for you. No matter how true and well intended this may be.